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Rio Grande Valley vs Fresno FC — USL Championship 2018

Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Fresno FC
Fresno FC
3/17/2019USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 4H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rio Grande Valley42%
×Draw26%
Fresno FC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Grande Valley
1.40
Fresno FC
1.18

Rio Grande Valley creates 19% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.44
Fresno FC
1.15

allows per match

Rio Grande Valley
1.21
Fresno FC
1.35

finishing

Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par
Fresno FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Grande Valley ↓

Fresno FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rio Grande Valley or draw
68%
Rio Grande Valley or Fresno FC
74%
Draw or Fresno FC
58%

Winning margin

Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
20%
Fresno FC wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
75%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
41%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
17%
Fresno FC 1+ goals
69%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
33%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
57%
Fresno FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Grande Valley at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.21 · 91 matches

Fresno FC away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.35 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.44 + Fresno FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.40

Fresno FC attack 1.15 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rio Grande Valley scores more
42%
level
26%
Fresno FC scores more
32%

Rio Grande Valley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Rio Grande Valley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Grande Valley vs Fresno FC

Fresno FC beat Rio Grande Valley 2-0 in USL Championship on March 17, 2019.

The match was played at H-E-B Park (Edinburg, Texas).