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Fresno FC vs Rio Grande Valley — USL Championship 2018

Fresno FC
Fresno FC
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Rio Grande Valley
Rio Grande Valley
5/10/2018USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 15Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Fresno FC51%
×Draw24%
Rio Grande Valley26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fresno FC
1.76
Rio Grande Valley
1.18

Fresno FC creates 49% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 93 away

creates per match

Fresno FC
1.86
Rio Grande Valley
1.25

allows per match

Fresno FC
1.11
Rio Grande Valley
1.66

finishing

Fresno FC+0.00on par
Rio Grande Valley+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fresno FC ↓

Rio Grande Valley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fresno FC or draw
74%
Fresno FC or Rio Grande Valley
76%
Draw or Rio Grande Valley
49%

Winning margin

Fresno FC wins by 2+
28%
Rio Grande Valley wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Fresno FC 1+ goals
83%
Fresno FC 2+ goals
52%
Fresno FC 3+ goals
26%
Rio Grande Valley 1+ goals
69%
Rio Grande Valley 2+ goals
33%
Rio Grande Valley 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Fresno FC (draw refunded)
67%
Rio Grande Valley (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fresno FC at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.11 · 35 matches

Rio Grande Valley away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.66 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fresno FC attack 1.86 + Rio Grande Valley defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.76

Rio Grande Valley attack 1.25 + Fresno FC defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Fresno FC scores more
51%
level
24%
Rio Grande Valley scores more
26%

Fresno FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Fresno FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Fresno FC 2–2 Rio Grande Valley

Fresno FC and Rio Grande Valley drew 2-2 in USL Championship on May 10, 2018.

The match was played at Chukchansi Park (Fresno, California).