Armagh City 2–1 Donegal Celtic: Result & Stats

Armagh City

FT

2 – 1

Donegal Celtic

4/24/2018

League #561 · Relegation Round - 2Holm Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Armagh City43%

×Draw23%

Donegal Celtic34%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Armagh CityExpected goals in this matchDonegal Celtic

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.50

Armagh City

1.73

Donegal Celtic

1.50

Armagh City creates 15% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 7 away

1.75

creates per match

1.43

1.58

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Armagh City

1.75

Donegal Celtic

1.43

allows per match

Armagh City

1.58

Donegal Celtic

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Armagh City+0.00on par

Donegal Celtic+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Armagh City ↓

Donegal Celtic →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Armagh City or draw

66%

Armagh City or Donegal Celtic

77%

Draw or Donegal Celtic

57%

Winning margin

Armagh City wins by 2+

23%

Donegal Celtic wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Armagh City 1+ goals

82%

Armagh City 2+ goals

52%

Armagh City 3+ goals

25%

Donegal Celtic 1+ goals

78%

Donegal Celtic 2+ goals

44%

Donegal Celtic 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Armagh City (draw refunded)

56%

Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Armagh City at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.58 · 12 matches

Donegal Celtic away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Armagh City attack 1.75 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.73

Donegal Celtic attack 1.43 + Armagh City defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Armagh City scores more

43%

level

23%

Donegal Celtic scores more

34%

Armagh City at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff