Donegal Celtic 0–0 Armagh City: Result & Stats

Donegal Celtic

FT

0 – 0

Armagh City

2/3/2018

League #561 · Round 16Donegal Celtic Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Donegal Celtic30%

×Draw24%

Armagh City46%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Donegal CelticExpected goals in this matchArmagh City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.65

Donegal Celtic

1.29

Armagh City

1.65

Armagh City creates 28% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.50

creates per match

1.55

1.75

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Donegal Celtic

1.50

Armagh City

1.55

allows per match

Donegal Celtic

1.75

Armagh City

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Donegal Celtic+0.00on par

Armagh City+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Donegal Celtic ↓

Armagh City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Donegal Celtic or draw

54%

Donegal Celtic or Armagh City

76%

Draw or Armagh City

70%

Winning margin

Donegal Celtic wins by 2+

13%

Armagh City wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Donegal Celtic 1+ goals

72%

Donegal Celtic 2+ goals

37%

Donegal Celtic 3+ goals

14%

Armagh City 1+ goals

81%

Armagh City 2+ goals

49%

Armagh City 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Donegal Celtic (draw refunded)

40%

Armagh City (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Donegal Celtic at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.75 · 8 matches

Armagh City away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Donegal Celtic attack 1.50 + Armagh City defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.29

Armagh City attack 1.55 + Donegal Celtic defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Donegal Celtic scores more

30%

level

24%

Armagh City scores more

46%

Armagh City at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Armagh City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff