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Rio Branco vs Independente PA — Serie D 2026

Rio Branco
Rio Branco
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Independente PA
Independente PA
6/3/2018Serie DSerie D · 16th FinalsArena da Floresta (Rio Branco, Acre)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Rio Branco60%
×Draw22%
Independente PA19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Branco
1.97
Independente PA
1.00

Rio Branco creates 97% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 11 away

creates per match

Rio Branco
1.58
Independente PA
1.00

allows per match

Rio Branco
1.00
Independente PA
2.36

finishing

Rio Branco+0.00on par
Independente PA+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco ↓

Independente PA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Rio Branco or draw
81%
Rio Branco or Independente PA
78%
Draw or Independente PA
40%

Winning margin

Rio Branco wins by 2+
36%
Independente PA wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rio Branco 1+ goals
86%
Rio Branco 2+ goals
58%
Rio Branco 3+ goals
31%
Independente PA 1+ goals
63%
Independente PA 2+ goals
26%
Independente PA 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco (draw refunded)
76%
Independente PA (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Independente PA away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.36 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco attack 1.58 + Independente PA defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.97

Independente PA attack 1.00 + Rio Branco defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Rio Branco scores more
60%
level
22%
Independente PA scores more
19%

Rio Branco at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Rio Branco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Rio Branco 3–0 Independente PA

Rio Branco beat Independente PA 3-0 in Serie D on June 3, 2018.

The match was played at Arena da Floresta (Rio Branco, Acre).