Independente PA 3–2 Rio Branco: Result & Stats

Independente PA

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rio Branco

11/28/2020

Serie D · Round 14Estádio Municipal Antônio Dias

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Independente PA55%

×Draw23%

Rio Branco22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independente PAExpected goals in this matchRio Branco

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.04

Independente PA

1.79

Rio Branco

1.04

Independente PA creates 72% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 30 away

1.82

creates per match

1.07

1.00

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Independente PA

1.82

Rio Branco

1.07

allows per match

Independente PA

1.00

Rio Branco

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independente PA+0.00on par

Rio Branco+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente PA ↓

Rio Branco →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Independente PA or draw

78%

Independente PA or Rio Branco

77%

Draw or Rio Branco

45%

Winning margin

Independente PA wins by 2+

31%

Rio Branco wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independente PA 1+ goals

83%

Independente PA 2+ goals

53%

Independente PA 3+ goals

26%

Rio Branco 1+ goals

65%

Rio Branco 2+ goals

28%

Rio Branco 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Independente PA (draw refunded)

71%

Rio Branco (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente PA at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches

Rio Branco away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.77 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente PA attack 1.82 + Rio Branco defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rio Branco attack 1.07 + Independente PA defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Independente PA scores more

55%

level

23%

Rio Branco scores more

22%

Independente PA at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Independente PA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff