Rio Branco U20 2–0 Independente SP U20

Rio Branco U20

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Independente SP U20

B. Sanches 70'

V. Manoel 41'

5/3/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 4Estádio Décio Vitta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Branco U2049%

×Draw22%

Independente SP U2028%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Branco U20Expected goals in this matchIndependente SP U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.40

Rio Branco U20

1.90

Independente SP U20

1.40

Rio Branco U20 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

1.60

creates per match

1.00

1.80

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Rio Branco U20

1.60

Independente SP U20

1.00

allows per match

Rio Branco U20

1.80

Independente SP U20

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Branco U20+0.00on par

Independente SP U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Branco U20 ↓

Independente SP U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Rio Branco U20 or draw

72%

Rio Branco U20 or Independente SP U20

78%

Draw or Independente SP U20

51%

Winning margin

Rio Branco U20 wins by 2+

28%

Independente SP U20 wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Rio Branco U20 1+ goals

85%

Rio Branco U20 2+ goals

56%

Rio Branco U20 3+ goals

29%

Independente SP U20 1+ goals

75%

Independente SP U20 2+ goals

41%

Independente SP U20 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rio Branco U20 (draw refunded)

63%

Independente SP U20 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Branco U20 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Independente SP U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Branco U20 attack 1.60 + Independente SP U20 defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Independente SP U20 attack 1.00 + Rio Branco U20 defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rio Branco U20 scores more

49%

level

22%

Independente SP U20 scores more

28%

Rio Branco U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rio Branco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'

V. Manoel

70'

B. Sanches

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff