Independente SP U20 0–2 Rio Branco U20

Independente SP U20

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rio Branco U20

Nelson 28'

Lucas 11'

6/7/2024

Paulista - U20 · 1st Phase - 9Estádio Comendador Agostinho Prada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Independente SP U2023%

×Draw23%

Rio Branco U2054%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independente SP U20Expected goals in this matchRio Branco U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.80

Independente SP U20

1.10

Rio Branco U20

1.80

Rio Branco U20 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

0.80

creates per match

1.00

2.60

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Independente SP U20

0.80

Rio Branco U20

1.00

allows per match

Independente SP U20

2.60

Rio Branco U20

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independente SP U20+0.00on par

Rio Branco U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independente SP U20 ↓

Rio Branco U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Independente SP U20 or draw

46%

Independente SP U20 or Rio Branco U20

77%

Draw or Rio Branco U20

77%

Winning margin

Independente SP U20 wins by 2+

9%

Rio Branco U20 wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Independente SP U20 1+ goals

67%

Independente SP U20 2+ goals

30%

Independente SP U20 3+ goals

10%

Rio Branco U20 1+ goals

83%

Rio Branco U20 2+ goals

54%

Rio Branco U20 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Independente SP U20 (draw refunded)

30%

Rio Branco U20 (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independente SP U20 at home — creates 0.80, concedes 2.60 · 5 matches

Rio Branco U20 away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independente SP U20 attack 0.80 + Rio Branco U20 defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.10

Rio Branco U20 attack 1.00 + Independente SP U20 defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Independente SP U20 scores more

23%

level

23%

Rio Branco U20 scores more

54%

Rio Branco U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Rio Branco U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

Lucas

28'

Nelson

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff