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Rio Ave vs Farense — Primeira Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
3 – 4
HT: 2 – 2
Farense
Farense
10/29/2023Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 9Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Rio Ave43%
×Draw27%
Farense31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.39
Farense
1.14

Rio Ave creates 22% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 51 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.25
Farense
0.96

allows per match

Rio Ave
1.32
Farense
1.53

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
69%
Rio Ave or Farense
73%
Draw or Farense
57%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
20%
Farense wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
75%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
40%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
16%
Farense 1+ goals
68%
Farense 2+ goals
32%
Farense 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
58%
Farense (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

Farense away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.25 + Farense defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.39

Farense attack 0.96 + Rio Ave defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rio Ave scores more
43%
level
27%
Farense scores more
31%

Rio Ave at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Rio Ave 3–4 Farense

Farense beat Rio Ave 4-3 in Primeira Liga on October 29, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.