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Rio Ave vs Farense — Segunda Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Farense
Farense
1/23/2022Segunda LigaSegunda Liga · Round 19Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rio Ave48%
×Draw27%
Farense26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.45
Farense
0.99

Rio Ave creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 81 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.71
Farense
1.09

allows per match

Rio Ave
0.88
Farense
1.19

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par
Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Farense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
74%
Rio Ave or Farense
73%
Draw or Farense
52%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
24%
Farense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
77%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
42%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
18%
Farense 1+ goals
63%
Farense 2+ goals
26%
Farense 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
65%
Farense (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.88 · 17 matches

Farense away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.19 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.71 + Farense defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.45

Farense attack 1.09 + Rio Ave defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rio Ave scores more
48%
level
27%
Farense scores more
26%

Rio Ave at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda Liga: Rio Ave 2–1 Farense

Rio Ave beat Farense 2-1 in Segunda Liga on January 23, 2022.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.