Rio Ave 2–0 Estrela: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Rio Ave

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Estrela

5/5/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 32Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rio Ave48%

×Draw25%

Estrela26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio AveExpected goals in this matchEstrela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.08

Rio Ave

1.55

Estrela

1.08

Rio Ave creates 44% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 19 away

1.37

creates per match

0.92

1.24

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Rio Ave

1.37

Estrela

0.92

allows per match

Rio Ave

1.24

Estrela

1.73

-0.37scores less than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Rio Ave-0.37scores less

Estrela+0.03on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Estrela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw

74%

Rio Ave or Estrela

75%

Draw or Estrela

52%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+

25%

Estrela wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals

79%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

46%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

20%

Estrela 1+ goals

66%

Estrela 2+ goals

29%

Estrela 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

65%

Estrela (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

Estrela away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.73 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.37 + Estrela defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.55

Estrela attack 0.92 + Rio Ave defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rio Ave scores more

48%

level

25%

Estrela scores more

26%

Rio Ave at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff