Estrela 1–0 Rio Ave: Result & Stats | Primeira Liga

Estrela

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rio Ave

12/23/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 15Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Estrela47%

×Draw26%

Rio Ave27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrelaExpected goals in this matchRio Ave

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Estrela

1.46

Rio Ave

1.04

Estrela creates 40% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 16 away

1.34

creates per match

0.68

1.40

allows per match

1.57

creates per match

Estrela

1.34

Rio Ave

0.68

allows per match

Estrela

1.40

Rio Ave

1.57

-0.18scores less than expected

finishing

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

Estrela-0.18scores less

Rio Ave+0.32scores more

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Rio Ave →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Estrela or draw

73%

Estrela or Rio Ave

74%

Draw or Rio Ave

53%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+

23%

Rio Ave wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals

77%

Estrela 2+ goals

43%

Estrela 3+ goals

18%

Rio Ave 1+ goals

65%

Rio Ave 2+ goals

28%

Rio Ave 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)

63%

Rio Ave (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 19 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.34 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Estrela defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Estrela scores more

47%

level

26%

Rio Ave scores more

27%

Estrela at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff