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Rio Ave vs Casa Pia — Primeira Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 2
Casa Pia
Casa Pia
11/2/2024Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 10Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Rio Ave48%
×Draw26%
Casa Pia26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.52
Casa Pia
1.06

Rio Ave creates 43% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.37
Casa Pia
0.89

allows per match

Rio Ave
1.24
Casa Pia
1.68

finishing

Rio Ave-0.37scores less
Casa Pia-0.18scores less

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Casa Pia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
74%
Rio Ave or Casa Pia
74%
Draw or Casa Pia
52%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
24%
Casa Pia wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
78%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
45%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
20%
Casa Pia 1+ goals
65%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
29%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
64%
Casa Pia (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches

Casa Pia away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.68 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.37 + Casa Pia defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.52

Casa Pia attack 0.89 + Rio Ave defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Rio Ave scores more
48%
level
26%
Casa Pia scores more
26%

Rio Ave at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rio Ave vs Casa Pia

Rio Ave and Casa Pia drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on November 2, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.