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Casa Pia vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Casa Pia
Casa Pia
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
3/29/2025Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 27Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Casa Pia39%
×Draw28%
Rio Ave34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Casa Pia
1.25
Rio Ave
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Casa Pia
0.92
Rio Ave
0.68

allows per match

Casa Pia
1.61
Rio Ave
1.57

finishing

Casa Pia+0.26scores more
Rio Ave+0.32scores more

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Casa Pia ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Casa Pia or draw
66%
Casa Pia or Rio Ave
72%
Draw or Rio Ave
61%

Winning margin

Casa Pia wins by 2+
17%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Casa Pia 1+ goals
71%
Casa Pia 2+ goals
36%
Casa Pia 3+ goals
13%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
68%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
32%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Casa Pia (draw refunded)
53%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Casa Pia at home — creates 0.92, concedes 1.61 · 11 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Casa Pia attack 0.92 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.25

Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Casa Pia defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Casa Pia scores more
39%
level
28%
Rio Ave scores more
34%

Casa Pia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Casa Pia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Casa Pia vs Rio Ave

Casa Pia beat Rio Ave 2-1 in Primeira Liga on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Rio Maior in Rio Maior.