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Rio Ave vs Aves — Primeira Liga 2018

Rio Ave
Rio Ave
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Aves
Aves
3/31/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 27Estádio dos Arcos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Rio Ave51%
×Draw25%
Aves25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rio Ave
1.63
Aves
1.06

Rio Ave creates 54% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 34 away

creates per match

Rio Ave
1.25
Aves
0.79

allows per match

Rio Ave
1.32
Aves
2.00

finishing

Rio Ave+0.00on par
Aves+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave ↓

Aves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rio Ave or draw
75%
Rio Ave or Aves
75%
Draw or Aves
49%

Winning margin

Rio Ave wins by 2+
27%
Aves wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rio Ave 1+ goals
80%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
48%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
22%
Aves 1+ goals
65%
Aves 2+ goals
29%
Aves 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rio Ave (draw refunded)
67%
Aves (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.32 · 120 matches

Aves away — creates 0.79, concedes 2.00 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave attack 1.25 + Aves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.63

Aves attack 0.79 + Rio Ave defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rio Ave scores more
51%
level
25%
Aves scores more
25%

Rio Ave at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Rio Ave 0–2 Aves

Aves beat Rio Ave 2-0 in Primeira Liga on March 31, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio dos Arcos in Vila do Conde.