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Aves vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2018

Aves
Aves
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Rio Ave
Rio Ave
2/9/2020Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 20Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Aves35%
×Draw27%
Rio Ave38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aves
1.19
Rio Ave
1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 35 home / 120 away

creates per match

Aves
0.94
Rio Ave
1.01

allows per match

Aves
1.51
Rio Ave
1.44

finishing

Aves+0.00on par
Rio Ave+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aves ↓

Rio Ave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Aves or draw
62%
Aves or Rio Ave
73%
Draw or Rio Ave
65%

Winning margin

Aves wins by 2+
14%
Rio Ave wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Aves 1+ goals
70%
Aves 2+ goals
33%
Aves 3+ goals
12%
Rio Ave 1+ goals
72%
Rio Ave 2+ goals
36%
Rio Ave 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Aves (draw refunded)
48%
Rio Ave (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aves at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.51 · 35 matches

Rio Ave away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.44 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aves attack 0.94 + Rio Ave defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rio Ave attack 1.01 + Aves defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aves scores more
35%
level
27%
Rio Ave scores more
38%

Rio Ave at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aves vs Rio Ave

Rio Ave beat Aves 4-0 in Primeira Liga on February 9, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Clube Desportivo das Aves in Vila das Aves.