Rio Ave vs Arouca — Primeira Liga 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 13+ matches
Rio Ave51%
Arouca25%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Rio Ave creates 54% more chances
Season form · 13 home / 18 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under50
- Over50
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes52
- No48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Rio Ave ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Rio Ave at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.24 · 13 matches
Arouca away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.87 · 18 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Rio Ave attack 1.37 + Arouca defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.62
Arouca attack 0.87 + Rio Ave defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.05
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Rio Ave at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Rio Ave will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Benfica
FC Porto
Sporting CP
SC Braga
Guimaraes
MoreirenseRio Ave
Boavista
Belenenses
Santa Clara
Portimonense
Maritimo
Vitoria Setubal
Aves
Tondela
Chaves
Nacional
FeirenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Rio Ave host Arouca on Sunday, 1 September 2024 at 17:00. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2018/2019 season.
Primeira Liga: Rio Ave 1–0 Arouca
Rio Ave beat Arouca 1-0 in Primeira Liga on September 1, 2024.
Goals: Clayton (43' pen).
Arouca controlled possession (54%) and registered 14 shots to 14.
The match was played at Estádio do Rio Ave Futebol Clube in Vila do Conde.