Arouca vs Rio Ave — Primeira Liga 2024
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 16+ matches
Arouca44%
Rio Ave28%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Arouca creates 32% more chances
Season form · 20 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Arouca ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Arouca at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.33 · 20 matches
Rio Ave away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.57 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Arouca attack 1.09 + Rio Ave defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.33
Rio Ave attack 0.68 + Arouca defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.01
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 44%?"
Arouca at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 44% does not mean "Arouca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FC Porto
Sporting CP
Benfica
SC Braga
Famalicao
GIL Vicente
Moreirense
GuimaraesArouca
Estoril
Alverca
Santa ClaraRio Ave
Nacional
Casa Pia
Estrela
Tondela
AVS
TorreenseIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Arouca host Rio Ave on Monday, 10 February 2025 at 20:15. The match is part of the Primeira Liga 2024/2025 season.
Match Recap: Arouca vs Rio Ave
Arouca and Rio Ave drew 1-1 in Primeira Liga on February 10, 2025.
Goals: José Fontán (71'), Tiago Morais (90+6').
Rio Ave controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 16.
The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Arouca in Arouca.