Rio Ave U19 2–1 Feirense U19: Result & Stats

Rio Ave U19

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Feirense U19

4/5/2025

League #1041 · Relegation Round - 8Campo de Treinos do Rio Ave FC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Rio Ave U1951%

×Draw25%

Feirense U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rio Ave U19Expected goals in this matchFeirense U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.02

Rio Ave U19

1.59

Feirense U19

1.02

Rio Ave U19 creates 56% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 13 away

1.80

creates per match

1.23

0.80

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Rio Ave U19

1.80

Feirense U19

1.23

allows per match

Rio Ave U19

0.80

Feirense U19

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rio Ave U19+0.00on par

Feirense U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rio Ave U19 ↓

Feirense U19 →

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rio Ave U19 or draw

76%

Rio Ave U19 or Feirense U19

75%

Draw or Feirense U19

49%

Winning margin

Rio Ave U19 wins by 2+

26%

Feirense U19 wins by 2+

Team goals

Rio Ave U19 1+ goals

80%

Rio Ave U19 2+ goals

47%

Rio Ave U19 3+ goals

21%

Feirense U19 1+ goals

64%

Feirense U19 2+ goals

27%

Feirense U19 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Rio Ave U19 (draw refunded)

68%

Feirense U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rio Ave U19 at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Feirense U19 away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rio Ave U19 attack 1.80 + Feirense U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.59

Feirense U19 attack 1.23 + Rio Ave U19 defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rio Ave U19 scores more

51%

level

25%

Feirense U19 scores more

24%

Rio Ave U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Rio Ave U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff