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Feirense U19 vs Rio Ave U19 — League #1041 2026

Feirense U19
Feirense U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rio Ave U19
Rio Ave U19
10/19/2024League #1041League #1041 · Round 10Campo Nº. 2 Complexo Desportivo Feirense

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Feirense U1935%
×Draw29%
Rio Ave U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Feirense U19
1.11
Rio Ave U19
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Feirense U19
1.23
Rio Ave U19
0.80

allows per match

Feirense U19
1.46
Rio Ave U19
1.00

finishing

Feirense U19+0.00on par
Rio Ave U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Feirense U19 ↓

Rio Ave U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Feirense U19 or draw
64%
Feirense U19 or Rio Ave U19
71%
Draw or Rio Ave U19
65%

Winning margin

Feirense U19 wins by 2+
14%
Rio Ave U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Feirense U19 1+ goals
67%
Feirense U19 2+ goals
30%
Feirense U19 3+ goals
10%
Rio Ave U19 1+ goals
68%
Rio Ave U19 2+ goals
31%
Rio Ave U19 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Feirense U19 (draw refunded)
49%
Rio Ave U19 (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Feirense U19 at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

Rio Ave U19 away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Feirense U19 attack 1.23 + Rio Ave U19 defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Rio Ave U19 attack 0.80 + Feirense U19 defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Feirense U19 scores more
35%
level
29%
Rio Ave U19 scores more
36%

Rio Ave U19 at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rio Ave U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #1041: Feirense U19 2–0 Rio Ave U19

Feirense U19 beat Rio Ave U19 2-0 in League #1041 on October 19, 2024.

The match was played at Campo Nº. 2 Complexo Desportivo Feirense in Sanfins.