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Ringkøbing vs Kjellerup — League #127 2026

Ringkøbing
Ringkøbing
FT
3 – 1
Kjellerup
Kjellerup
9/27/2024League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 8Green Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Ringkøbing79%
×Draw13%
Kjellerup8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ringkøbing
3.00
Kjellerup
0.90

Ringkøbing creates 233% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

creates per match

Ringkøbing
2.60
Kjellerup
0.60

allows per match

Ringkøbing
1.20
Kjellerup
3.40

finishing

Ringkøbing+0.00on par
Kjellerup+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ringkøbing ↓

Kjellerup →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Ringkøbing or draw
92%
Ringkøbing or Kjellerup
87%
Draw or Kjellerup
21%

Winning margin

Ringkøbing wins by 2+
59%
Kjellerup wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Ringkøbing 1+ goals
95%
Ringkøbing 2+ goals
79%
Ringkøbing 3+ goals
56%
Kjellerup 1+ goals
59%
Kjellerup 2+ goals
23%
Kjellerup 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ringkøbing (draw refunded)
90%
Kjellerup (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ringkøbing at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

Kjellerup away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ringkøbing attack 2.60 + Kjellerup defence 3.40 → ÷2 → 3.00

Kjellerup attack 0.60 + Ringkøbing defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Ringkøbing scores more
79%
level
13%
Kjellerup scores more
8%

Ringkøbing at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Ringkøbing will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #127: Ringkøbing 3–1 Kjellerup

Ringkøbing beat Kjellerup 3-1 in League #127 on September 27, 2024.

The match was played at Green Arena in Ringkøbing.