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Kjellerup vs Ringkøbing — League #127 2026

Kjellerup
Kjellerup
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Ringkøbing
Ringkøbing
3/28/2025League #127League #127 · Group 4 - 17Kjellerup Kunstgræsbane

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Kjellerup43%
×Draw21%
Ringkøbing35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kjellerup
2.00
Ringkøbing
1.79

Kjellerup creates 12% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

creates per match

Kjellerup
1.71
Ringkøbing
1.71

allows per match

Kjellerup
1.86
Ringkøbing
2.29

finishing

Kjellerup+0.00on par
Ringkøbing+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kjellerup ↓

Ringkøbing →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Kjellerup or draw
65%
Kjellerup or Ringkøbing
79%
Draw or Ringkøbing
57%

Winning margin

Kjellerup wins by 2+
24%
Ringkøbing wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kjellerup 1+ goals
86%
Kjellerup 2+ goals
59%
Kjellerup 3+ goals
32%
Ringkøbing 1+ goals
83%
Ringkøbing 2+ goals
53%
Ringkøbing 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kjellerup (draw refunded)
55%
Ringkøbing (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kjellerup at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Ringkøbing away — creates 1.71, concedes 2.29 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kjellerup attack 1.71 + Ringkøbing defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.00

Ringkøbing attack 1.71 + Kjellerup defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kjellerup scores more
43%
level
21%
Ringkøbing scores more
35%

Kjellerup at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Kjellerup will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #127: Kjellerup 2–3 Ringkøbing

Ringkøbing beat Kjellerup 3-2 in League #127 on March 28, 2025.

The match was played at Kjellerup Kunstgræsbane in Kjellerup.