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Rinconeda Polanco vs Ribamontán al Mar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
2/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 15Campo Municipal de Polanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rinconeda Polanco36%
×Draw24%
Ribamontán al Mar40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rinconeda Polanco
1.47
Ribamontán al Mar
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

creates per match

Rinconeda Polanco
0.93
Ribamontán al Mar
0.96

allows per match

Rinconeda Polanco
2.20
Ribamontán al Mar
2.00

finishing

Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par
Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rinconeda Polanco ↓

Ribamontán al Mar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rinconeda Polanco or draw
60%
Rinconeda Polanco or Ribamontán al Mar
76%
Draw or Ribamontán al Mar
64%

Winning margin

Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
17%
Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
77%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
43%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
18%
Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
79%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
47%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
47%
Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rinconeda Polanco at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Ribamontán al Mar away — creates 0.96, concedes 2.00 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.93 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.47

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.96 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rinconeda Polanco scores more
36%
level
24%
Ribamontán al Mar scores more
40%

Ribamontán al Mar at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ribamontán al Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rinconeda Polanco vs Ribamontán al Mar

Ribamontán al Mar beat Rinconeda Polanco 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on February 7, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Polanco in Polanco.