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Ribamontán al Mar vs Rinconeda Polanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Ribamontán al Mar
Ribamontán al Mar
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
12/27/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 4Estadio Baceñuela

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ribamontán al Mar38%
×Draw27%
Rinconeda Polanco35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ribamontán al Mar
1.28
Rinconeda Polanco
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ribamontán al Mar
0.63
Rinconeda Polanco
0.73

allows per match

Ribamontán al Mar
1.73
Rinconeda Polanco
1.93

finishing

Ribamontán al Mar+0.00on par
Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ribamontán al Mar ↓

Rinconeda Polanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Ribamontán al Mar or draw
65%
Ribamontán al Mar or Rinconeda Polanco
73%
Draw or Rinconeda Polanco
62%

Winning margin

Ribamontán al Mar wins by 2+
17%
Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Ribamontán al Mar 1+ goals
72%
Ribamontán al Mar 2+ goals
37%
Ribamontán al Mar 3+ goals
14%
Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
71%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
35%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Ribamontán al Mar (draw refunded)
52%
Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ribamontán al Mar at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.73 · 30 matches

Rinconeda Polanco away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ribamontán al Mar attack 0.63 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.28

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.73 + Ribamontán al Mar defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ribamontán al Mar scores more
38%
level
27%
Rinconeda Polanco scores more
35%

Ribamontán al Mar at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ribamontán al Mar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Ribamontán al Mar 0–1 Rinconeda Polanco

Rinconeda Polanco beat Ribamontán al Mar 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Baceñuela in Galizano, Ribamontán al Mar.