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Rinconeda Polanco vs Bezana — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Bezana
Bezana
10/25/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 2Campo Municipal de Polanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rinconeda Polanco25%
×Draw24%
Bezana51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rinconeda Polanco
1.13
Bezana
1.72

Bezana creates 52% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 81 away

creates per match

Rinconeda Polanco
0.93
Bezana
1.23

allows per match

Rinconeda Polanco
2.20
Bezana
1.33

finishing

Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par
Bezana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rinconeda Polanco ↓

Bezana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rinconeda Polanco or draw
49%
Rinconeda Polanco or Bezana
76%
Draw or Bezana
75%

Winning margin

Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
10%
Bezana wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
68%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
31%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
11%
Bezana 1+ goals
82%
Bezana 2+ goals
51%
Bezana 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
33%
Bezana (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rinconeda Polanco at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Bezana away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.93 + Bezana defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.13

Bezana attack 1.23 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rinconeda Polanco scores more
25%
level
24%
Bezana scores more
51%

Bezana at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Rinconeda Polanco 1–1 Bezana

Rinconeda Polanco and Bezana drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 25, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Polanco in Polanco.