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Bezana vs Rinconeda Polanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Bezana
Bezana
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
1/23/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Bezana54%
×Draw25%
Rinconeda Polanco21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bezana
1.64
Rinconeda Polanco
0.93

Bezana creates 76% more chances

Season form · 79 home / 15 away

creates per match

Bezana
1.35
Rinconeda Polanco
0.73

allows per match

Bezana
1.13
Rinconeda Polanco
1.93

finishing

Bezana+0.00on par
Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bezana ↓

Rinconeda Polanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Bezana or draw
79%
Bezana or Rinconeda Polanco
75%
Draw or Rinconeda Polanco
46%

Winning margin

Bezana wins by 2+
29%
Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Bezana 1+ goals
81%
Bezana 2+ goals
49%
Bezana 3+ goals
23%
Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
61%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
24%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bezana (draw refunded)
72%
Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bezana at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.13 · 79 matches

Rinconeda Polanco away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bezana attack 1.35 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.64

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.73 + Bezana defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Bezana scores more
54%
level
25%
Rinconeda Polanco scores more
21%

Bezana at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Bezana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Bezana vs Rinconeda Polanco

Rinconeda Polanco beat Bezana 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 23, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal in Santa Cruz de Bezana.