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Rinconeda Polanco vs Barquereño — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barquereño
Barquereño
3/20/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Campo Municipal de Polanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Rinconeda Polanco34%
×Draw24%
Barquereño42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rinconeda Polanco
1.41
Barquereño
1.61

Barquereño creates 14% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rinconeda Polanco
0.93
Barquereño
1.02

allows per match

Rinconeda Polanco
2.20
Barquereño
1.89

finishing

Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par
Barquereño+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rinconeda Polanco ↓

Barquereño →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Rinconeda Polanco or draw
58%
Rinconeda Polanco or Barquereño
76%
Draw or Barquereño
66%

Winning margin

Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
15%
Barquereño wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
76%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
41%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
17%
Barquereño 1+ goals
80%
Barquereño 2+ goals
48%
Barquereño 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
44%
Barquereño (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rinconeda Polanco at home — creates 0.93, concedes 2.20 · 15 matches

Barquereño away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.89 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.93 + Barquereño defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.41

Barquereño attack 1.02 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rinconeda Polanco scores more
34%
level
24%
Barquereño scores more
42%

Barquereño at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barquereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rinconeda Polanco 1 – 0 Barquereño

Rinconeda Polanco beat Barquereño 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on March 20, 2021.

The match was played at Campo Municipal de Polanco in Polanco.