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Barquereño vs Rinconeda Polanco — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Barquereño
Barquereño
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rinconeda Polanco
Rinconeda Polanco
12/20/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 10Estadio El Castañar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Barquereño53%
×Draw24%
Rinconeda Polanco23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barquereño
1.75
Rinconeda Polanco
1.07

Barquereño creates 64% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 15 away

creates per match

Barquereño
1.58
Rinconeda Polanco
0.73

allows per match

Barquereño
1.41
Rinconeda Polanco
1.93

finishing

Barquereño+0.00on par
Rinconeda Polanco+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barquereño ↓

Rinconeda Polanco →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barquereño or draw
77%
Barquereño or Rinconeda Polanco
76%
Draw or Rinconeda Polanco
47%

Winning margin

Barquereño wins by 2+
29%
Rinconeda Polanco wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barquereño 1+ goals
83%
Barquereño 2+ goals
52%
Barquereño 3+ goals
25%
Rinconeda Polanco 1+ goals
66%
Rinconeda Polanco 2+ goals
29%
Rinconeda Polanco 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barquereño (draw refunded)
70%
Rinconeda Polanco (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barquereño at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.41 · 64 matches

Rinconeda Polanco away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.93 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barquereño attack 1.58 + Rinconeda Polanco defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.75

Rinconeda Polanco attack 0.73 + Barquereño defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barquereño scores more
53%
level
24%
Rinconeda Polanco scores more
23%

Barquereño at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barquereño will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barquereño vs Rinconeda Polanco

Barquereño and Rinconeda Polanco drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 20, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio El Castañar in San Vicente de la Barquera.