Rincón 1–3 Real Jaén: Result & Stats

Rincón

1 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Real Jaén

1/28/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 19Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón26%

×Draw27%

Real Jaén47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RincónExpected goals in this matchReal Jaén

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.96

1.40

Rincón

0.96

Real Jaén

1.40

Real Jaén creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 93 away

0.88

creates per match

1.15

1.65

allows per match

1.03

creates per match

Rincón

0.88

Real Jaén

1.15

allows per match

Rincón

1.65

Real Jaén

1.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Real Jaén →

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Rincón or draw

53%

Rincón or Real Jaén

73%

Draw or Real Jaén

74%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+

Real Jaén wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals

62%

Rincón 2+ goals

25%

Rincón 3+ goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

75%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

41%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)

35%

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Real Jaén away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.03 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Real Jaén defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.96

Real Jaén attack 1.15 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rincón scores more

26%

level

27%

Real Jaén scores more

47%

Real Jaén at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff