Real Jaén 2–2 Rincón: Result & Stats

Real Jaén

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Rincón

9/17/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 2Nuevo Estadio La Victoria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Jaén59%

×Draw23%

Rincón18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real JaénExpected goals in this matchRincón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.88

Real Jaén

1.79

Rincón

0.88

Real Jaén creates 103% more chances

Season form · 94 home / 17 away

2.12

creates per match

0.94

0.82

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Real Jaén

2.12

Rincón

0.94

allows per match

Real Jaén

0.82

Rincón

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Jaén+0.00on par

Rincón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Jaén ↓

Rincón →

0–07%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Real Jaén or draw

82%

Real Jaén or Rincón

77%

Draw or Rincón

41%

Winning margin

Real Jaén wins by 2+

34%

Rincón wins by 2+

Team goals

Real Jaén 1+ goals

83%

Real Jaén 2+ goals

53%

Real Jaén 3+ goals

26%

Rincón 1+ goals

59%

Rincón 2+ goals

22%

Rincón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Real Jaén (draw refunded)

76%

Rincón (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Real Jaén at home — creates 2.12, concedes 0.82 · 94 matches

Rincón away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Real Jaén attack 2.12 + Rincón defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.79

Rincón attack 0.94 + Real Jaén defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 59%?"

Real Jaén scores more

59%

level

23%

Rincón scores more

18%

Real Jaén at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Real Jaén will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff