Rincón 1–1 Polideportivo Almería: Result & Stats

Rincón

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Polideportivo Almería

Chechu 32'

Dani Mesas 89'

3/10/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 25Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón40%

×Draw26%

Polideportivo Almería34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RincónExpected goals in this matchPolideportivo Almería

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.24

Rincón

1.37

Polideportivo Almería

1.24

Rincón creates 10% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 63 away

0.88

creates per match

0.84

1.65

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Rincón

0.88

Polideportivo Almería

0.84

allows per match

Rincón

1.65

Polideportivo Almería

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Polideportivo Almería →

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Rincón or draw

66%

Rincón or Polideportivo Almería

74%

Draw or Polideportivo Almería

60%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+

18%

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals

75%

Rincón 2+ goals

40%

Rincón 3+ goals

16%

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

71%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

35%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)

54%

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Polideportivo Almería away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.86 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.37

Polideportivo Almería attack 0.84 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rincón scores more

40%

level

26%

Polideportivo Almería scores more

34%

Rincón at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rincón will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'

Chechu

60'

Pablo Checa← Othman Ouhadi

62'

David Álvarez← Juan Oñate

62'

L. Fatty← Toni Conejo

72'

Cristian Medina← Pepe Capitán

74'

Álvaro Cruz← Fernando Carralero

82'

Joselu← Moussa

82'

Diego Felices← J. Randal

82'

Dani Mesas← Linares

87'

Perico← Balta

87'

Enri← Adal Jiménez

89'

Dani Mesas

Rincón

Polideportivo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Álex Ortiz

62'▲David Álvarez←▼Juan Oñate

62'▲L. Fatty←▼Toni Conejo

72'▲Cristian Medina←▼Pepe Capitán

87'▲Perico←▼Balta

87'▲Enri←▼Adal Jiménez

Rincón substitutes

ÁlvarezFattyMedinaPericoEnri

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

60'▲Pablo Checa←▼Othman Ouhadi

74'▲Álvaro Cruz←▼Fernando Carralero

82'▲Joselu←▼Moussa

82'▲Diego Felices←▼J. Randal

82'▲Dani Mesas←▼Linares

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

ChecaCruzJoseluFelicesMesas