Polideportivo Almería 1–0 Rincón: Result & Stats

Polideportivo Almería

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Rincón

Félix 90+5'

10/29/2023

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 8Ciudad Deportiva Los Ángeles

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Polideportivo Almería43%

×Draw27%

Rincón30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Polideportivo AlmeríaExpected goals in this matchRincón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

1.10

Polideportivo Almería

1.36

Rincón

1.10

Polideportivo Almería creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 17 away

1.26

creates per match

0.94

1.27

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.26

Rincón

0.94

allows per match

Polideportivo Almería

1.27

Rincón

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Polideportivo Almería+0.00on par

Rincón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Polideportivo Almería ↓

Rincón →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Polideportivo Almería or draw

70%

Polideportivo Almería or Rincón

73%

Draw or Rincón

57%

Winning margin

Polideportivo Almería wins by 2+

20%

Rincón wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Polideportivo Almería 1+ goals

74%

Polideportivo Almería 2+ goals

39%

Polideportivo Almería 3+ goals

16%

Rincón 1+ goals

67%

Rincón 2+ goals

30%

Rincón 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Polideportivo Almería (draw refunded)

59%

Rincón (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Polideportivo Almería at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.27 · 62 matches

Rincón away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Polideportivo Almería attack 1.26 + Rincón defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.36

Rincón attack 0.94 + Polideportivo Almería defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Polideportivo Almería scores more

43%

level

27%

Rincón scores more

30%

Polideportivo Almería at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Polideportivo Almería will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'

Balta← Juan Aroca

64'

Moussa← Pablo Checa

71'

Francis← Adal Jiménez

72'

Álvaro de la Rosa← J. Randal

72'

Othman Ouhadi← Campanas

87'

Juanmi Villegas← A. El Baroudi

87'

Córdoba← Dani Garzón

87'

Fran Palomino← Balta

87'

Joaquín Ibañez← Toni Conejo

90+5'

Félix

Polideportivo

Rincón

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Manager: Carlos Hinojo

64'▲Moussa←▼Pablo Checa

72'▲Álvaro de la Rosa←▼J. Randal

72'▲Othman Ouhadi←▼Campanas

87'▲Juanmi Villegas←▼A. El Baroudi

87'▲Córdoba←▼Dani Garzón

Polideportivo Almería substitutes

MoussaRosaOuhadiVillegasCórdoba

Manager: Álex Ortiz

24'▲Balta←▼Juan Aroca

71'▲Francis←▼Adal Jiménez

87'▲Fran Palomino←▼Balta

87'▲Joaquín Ibañez←▼Toni Conejo

Rincón substitutes

BaltaFrancisPalominoIbañez