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Rincón vs Huétor Vega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Rincón
Rincón
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
12/23/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 16Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón31%
×Draw27%
Huétor Vega41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rincón
1.13
Huétor Vega
1.34

Huétor Vega creates 19% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Rincón
0.88
Huétor Vega
1.04

allows per match

Rincón
1.65
Huétor Vega
1.38

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par
Huétor Vega+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Huétor Vega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rincón or draw
59%
Rincón or Huétor Vega
73%
Draw or Huétor Vega
69%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+
13%
Huétor Vega wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals
68%
Rincón 2+ goals
31%
Rincón 3+ goals
11%
Huétor Vega 1+ goals
74%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
39%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)
43%
Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Huétor Vega away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.38 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Huétor Vega defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Huétor Vega attack 1.04 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rincón scores more
31%
level
27%
Huétor Vega scores more
41%

Huétor Vega at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rincón vs Huétor Vega

Rincón beat Huétor Vega 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on December 23, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Romero in Rincón de la Victoria.