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Huétor Vega vs Rincón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Huétor Vega
Huétor Vega
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Rincón
Rincón
5/5/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 33Estadio Las Viñas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Huétor Vega46%
×Draw26%
Rincón28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Huétor Vega
1.45
Rincón
1.07

Huétor Vega creates 36% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 17 away

creates per match

Huétor Vega
1.43
Rincón
0.94

allows per match

Huétor Vega
1.21
Rincón
1.47

finishing

Huétor Vega+0.00on par
Rincón+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Huétor Vega ↓

Rincón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Huétor Vega or draw
72%
Huétor Vega or Rincón
74%
Draw or Rincón
54%

Winning margin

Huétor Vega wins by 2+
22%
Rincón wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Huétor Vega 1+ goals
77%
Huétor Vega 2+ goals
42%
Huétor Vega 3+ goals
18%
Rincón 1+ goals
66%
Rincón 2+ goals
29%
Rincón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Huétor Vega (draw refunded)
62%
Rincón (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Huétor Vega at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

Rincón away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Huétor Vega attack 1.43 + Rincón defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.45

Rincón attack 0.94 + Huétor Vega defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Huétor Vega scores more
46%
level
26%
Rincón scores more
28%

Huétor Vega at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Huétor Vega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Huétor Vega vs Rincón

Rincón beat Huétor Vega 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on May 5, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Las Viñas in Huétor Vega.