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Rincón vs Ciudad de Torredonjimeno — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Rincón
Rincón
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
11/5/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 9Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón31%
×Draw26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rincón
1.17
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.40

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 110 away

creates per match

Rincón
0.88
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.16

allows per match

Rincón
1.65
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
1.45

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rincón or draw
58%
Rincón or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
74%
Draw or Ciudad de Torredonjimeno
69%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+
13%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals
69%
Rincón 2+ goals
33%
Rincón 3+ goals
11%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals
75%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals
41%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)
43%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.45 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.16 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rincón scores more
31%
level
26%
Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more
42%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rincón 1 – 1 Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

Rincón and Ciudad de Torredonjimeno drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on November 5, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Romero in Rincón de la Victoria.