Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2–1 Rincón: Result & Stats

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Rincón

3/24/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 26Estadio Matías Prats

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno53%

×Draw25%

Rincón23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ciudad de TorredonjimenoExpected goals in this matchRincón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.97

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.62

Rincón

0.97

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno creates 67% more chances

Season form · 109 home / 17 away

1.77

creates per match

0.94

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.77

Rincón

0.94

allows per match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno

1.00

Rincón

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno+0.00on par

Rincón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno ↓

Rincón →

0–08%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or draw

77%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno or Rincón

75%

Draw or Rincón

47%

Winning margin

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno wins by 2+

28%

Rincón wins by 2+

Team goals

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 1+ goals

80%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 2+ goals

48%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno 3+ goals

22%

Rincón 1+ goals

62%

Rincón 2+ goals

25%

Rincón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno (draw refunded)

70%

Rincón (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.00 · 109 matches

Rincón away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno attack 1.77 + Rincón defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.62

Rincón attack 0.94 + Ciudad de Torredonjimeno defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno scores more

53%

level

25%

Rincón scores more

23%

Ciudad de Torredonjimeno at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ciudad de Torredonjimeno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff