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Rincón vs Arenas Armilla — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Rincón
Rincón
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Arenas Armilla
Arenas Armilla
1/7/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 14Estadio Francisco Romero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Rincón29%
×Draw28%
Arenas Armilla43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rincón
1.02
Arenas Armilla
1.29

Arenas Armilla creates 26% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 68 away

creates per match

Rincón
0.88
Arenas Armilla
0.94

allows per match

Rincón
1.65
Arenas Armilla
1.16

finishing

Rincón+0.00on par
Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rincón ↓

Arenas Armilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rincón or draw
57%
Rincón or Arenas Armilla
72%
Draw or Arenas Armilla
71%

Winning margin

Rincón wins by 2+
11%
Arenas Armilla wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rincón 1+ goals
64%
Rincón 2+ goals
27%
Rincón 3+ goals
8%
Arenas Armilla 1+ goals
72%
Arenas Armilla 2+ goals
37%
Arenas Armilla 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Rincón (draw refunded)
41%
Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rincón at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Arenas Armilla away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.16 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rincón attack 0.88 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.02

Arenas Armilla attack 0.94 + Rincón defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Rincón scores more
29%
level
28%
Arenas Armilla scores more
43%

Arenas Armilla at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Rincón 0–2 Arenas Armilla

Arenas Armilla beat Rincón 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on January 7, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Francisco Romero in Rincón de la Victoria.