Arenas Armilla 1–2 Rincón: Result & Stats

Arenas Armilla

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Rincón

Alex Utrilla 84'

Pepe Capitán 23', 17'

4/27/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 · Group 9 - 31Estadio Nuevo Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Arenas Armilla45%

×Draw27%

Rincón28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arenas ArmillaExpected goals in this matchRincón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.02

Arenas Armilla

1.38

Rincón

1.02

Arenas Armilla creates 35% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 17 away

1.29

creates per match

0.94

1.10

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Arenas Armilla

1.29

Rincón

0.94

allows per match

Arenas Armilla

1.10

Rincón

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arenas Armilla+0.00on par

Rincón+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arenas Armilla ↓

Rincón →

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Arenas Armilla or draw

72%

Arenas Armilla or Rincón

73%

Draw or Rincón

55%

Winning margin

Arenas Armilla wins by 2+

21%

Rincón wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Arenas Armilla 1+ goals

75%

Arenas Armilla 2+ goals

40%

Arenas Armilla 3+ goals

16%

Rincón 1+ goals

64%

Rincón 2+ goals

27%

Rincón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Arenas Armilla (draw refunded)

62%

Rincón (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Arenas Armilla at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.10 · 68 matches

Rincón away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Arenas Armilla attack 1.29 + Rincón defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rincón attack 0.94 + Arenas Armilla defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 45%?"

Arenas Armilla scores more

45%

level

27%

Rincón scores more

28%

Arenas Armilla at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Arenas Armilla will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

17'

Pepe Capitán

23'

Pepe Capitán

34'

Francisco Solera← Pablo Izquierdo

46'

Parra← Maldo

46'

Juan Ignacio← Israel

46'

Pablo Merino← Alberto

60'

Perico← David Álvarez

60'

Jon Aparicio← Gonzalo García

70'

Carlos Pérez← Óscar González

70'

L. Fatty← Cristian Medina

72'

Carlos Villa← Álex Cabello

84'

Alex Utrilla

87'

Eric Soto← Pepe Capitán

Arenas

Rincón

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Rizos

34'▲Francisco Solera←▼Pablo Izquierdo

46'▲Parra←▼Maldo

46'▲Juan Ignacio←▼Israel

46'▲Pablo Merino←▼Alberto

72'▲Carlos Villa←▼Álex Cabello

Arenas Armilla substitutes

SoleraParraIgnacioMerinoVilla

Manager: Álex Ortiz

60'▲Perico←▼David Álvarez

60'▲Jon Aparicio←▼Gonzalo García

70'▲Carlos Pérez←▼Óscar González

70'▲L. Fatty←▼Cristian Medina

87'▲Eric Soto←▼Pepe Capitán

Rincón substitutes

PericoAparicioPérezFattySoto

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 1–2 Rincón

Rincón beat Arenas Armilla 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 on April 27, 2024.

Goals: Pepe Capitán (17', 23'), Alex Utrilla (84').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal in Armilla.

Arenas Armilla vs Rincón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9: Arenas Armilla 1–2 Rincón