Rimavská Sobota 3–0 Novohrad Lučenec

Rimavská Sobota

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Novohrad Lučenec

3/10/2024

3. liga - East · East - 17Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rimavská Sobota61%

×Draw20%

Novohrad Lučenec18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rimavská SobotaExpected goals in this matchNovohrad Lučenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.06

Rimavská Sobota

2.11

Novohrad Lučenec

1.06

Rimavská Sobota creates 99% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

2.30

creates per match

0.95

1.18

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Rimavská Sobota

2.30

Novohrad Lučenec

0.95

allows per match

Rimavská Sobota

1.18

Novohrad Lučenec

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rimavská Sobota ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Rimavská Sobota or draw

82%

Rimavská Sobota or Novohrad Lučenec

80%

Draw or Novohrad Lučenec

39%

Winning margin

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

38%

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

88%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

62%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

35%

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

65%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

29%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

77%

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rimavská Sobota at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.93 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rimavská Sobota attack 2.30 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 2.11

Novohrad Lučenec attack 0.95 + Rimavská Sobota defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rimavská Sobota scores more

61%

level

20%

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

18%

Rimavská Sobota at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rimavská Sobota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff