Novohrad Lučenec 2–0 Rimavská Sobota

Novohrad Lučenec

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Rimavská Sobota

8/23/2024

3. liga - East · East - 4Mestský štadión

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Novohrad Lučenec45%

×Draw23%

Rimavská Sobota32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Novohrad LučenecExpected goals in this matchRimavská Sobota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.42

Novohrad Lučenec

1.73

Rimavská Sobota

1.42

Novohrad Lučenec creates 22% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

1.11

creates per match

1.68

1.16

allows per match

2.36

creates per match

Novohrad Lučenec

1.11

Rimavská Sobota

1.68

allows per match

Novohrad Lučenec

1.16

Rimavská Sobota

2.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novohrad Lučenec ↓

Rimavská Sobota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Novohrad Lučenec or draw

68%

Novohrad Lučenec or Rimavská Sobota

77%

Draw or Rimavská Sobota

55%

Winning margin

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

24%

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

82%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

52%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

25%

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

76%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

41%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

59%

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novohrad Lučenec at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Rimavská Sobota away — creates 1.68, concedes 2.36 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.11 + Rimavská Sobota defence 2.36 → ÷2 → 1.73

Rimavská Sobota attack 1.68 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

45%

level

23%

Rimavská Sobota scores more

32%

Novohrad Lučenec at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Novohrad Lučenec will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff