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Rimavská Sobota vs Baník Kalinovo — 3. liga - East 2020

Rimavská Sobota
Rimavská Sobota
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Baník Kalinovo
Baník Kalinovo
8/17/20243. liga - East3. liga - East · East - 3Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Rimavská Sobota65%
×Draw18%
Baník Kalinovo17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rimavská Sobota
2.39
Baník Kalinovo
1.13

Rimavská Sobota creates 112% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 44 away

creates per match

Rimavská Sobota
2.30
Baník Kalinovo
1.07

allows per match

Rimavská Sobota
1.18
Baník Kalinovo
2.48

finishing

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par
Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rimavská Sobota ↓

Baník Kalinovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Rimavská Sobota or draw
83%
Rimavská Sobota or Baník Kalinovo
82%
Draw or Baník Kalinovo
35%

Winning margin

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+
43%
Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals
91%
Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals
69%
Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals
42%
Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals
68%
Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals
31%
Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)
80%
Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rimavská Sobota at home — creates 2.30, concedes 1.18 · 44 matches

Baník Kalinovo away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.48 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rimavská Sobota attack 2.30 + Baník Kalinovo defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.39

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.07 + Rimavská Sobota defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Rimavská Sobota scores more
65%
level
18%
Baník Kalinovo scores more
17%

Rimavská Sobota at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Rimavská Sobota will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - East: Rimavská Sobota 0–2 Baník Kalinovo

Baník Kalinovo beat Rimavská Sobota 2-0 in 3. liga - East on August 17, 2024.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión Na Záhradkách in Rimavská Sobota.