Baník Kalinovo 1–2 Rimavská Sobota: Result & Stats

Baník Kalinovo

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Rimavská Sobota

11/2/2025

3. liga - Center · Central - 13Štadión Kalinovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Baník Kalinovo54%

×Draw21%

Rimavská Sobota25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Baník KalinovoExpected goals in this matchRimavská Sobota

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.36

Baník Kalinovo

2.10

Rimavská Sobota

1.36

Baník Kalinovo creates 54% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 35 away

1.61

creates per match

1.29

1.44

allows per match

2.60

creates per match

Baník Kalinovo

1.61

Rimavská Sobota

1.29

allows per match

Baník Kalinovo

1.44

Rimavská Sobota

2.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baník Kalinovo+0.00on par

Rimavská Sobota+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baník Kalinovo ↓

Rimavská Sobota →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Baník Kalinovo or draw

75%

Baník Kalinovo or Rimavská Sobota

79%

Draw or Rimavská Sobota

46%

Winning margin

Baník Kalinovo wins by 2+

32%

Rimavská Sobota wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Baník Kalinovo 1+ goals

88%

Baník Kalinovo 2+ goals

62%

Baník Kalinovo 3+ goals

35%

Rimavská Sobota 1+ goals

74%

Rimavská Sobota 2+ goals

39%

Rimavská Sobota 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Baník Kalinovo (draw refunded)

69%

Rimavská Sobota (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baník Kalinovo at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.44 · 36 matches

Rimavská Sobota away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.60 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baník Kalinovo attack 1.61 + Rimavská Sobota defence 2.60 → ÷2 → 2.10

Rimavská Sobota attack 1.29 + Baník Kalinovo defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Baník Kalinovo scores more

54%

level

21%

Rimavská Sobota scores more

25%

Baník Kalinovo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Baník Kalinovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff