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Riltzi vs Fratria — Third League - Northeast 2018

Riltzi
Riltzi
FT
1 – 3
Fratria
Fratria
11/4/2023Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 13Stadion Sgurta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Riltzi26%
×Draw22%
Fratria52%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Riltzi
1.39
Fratria
2.04

Fratria creates 47% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 13 away

creates per match

Riltzi
1.85
Fratria
2.23

allows per match

Riltzi
1.85
Fratria
0.92

finishing

Riltzi+0.00on par
Fratria+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riltzi ↓

Fratria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Riltzi or draw
48%
Riltzi or Fratria
78%
Draw or Fratria
74%

Winning margin

Riltzi wins by 2+
11%
Fratria wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Riltzi 1+ goals
75%
Riltzi 2+ goals
40%
Riltzi 3+ goals
16%
Fratria 1+ goals
87%
Fratria 2+ goals
60%
Fratria 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Riltzi (draw refunded)
33%
Fratria (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riltzi at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Fratria away — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riltzi attack 1.85 + Fratria defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.39

Fratria attack 2.23 + Riltzi defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Riltzi scores more
26%
level
22%
Fratria scores more
52%

Fratria at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Riltzi vs Fratria

Fratria beat Riltzi 3-1 in Third League - Northeast on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Sgurta in Dobrich.