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Fratria vs Riltzi — Third League - Northeast 2018

Fratria
Fratria
FT
7 – 0
Riltzi
Riltzi
5/18/2024Third League - NortheastThird League - Northeast · Northeast - 28Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Fratria79%
×Draw13%
Riltzi7%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fratria
2.76
Riltzi
0.72

Fratria creates 283% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 70 away

creates per match

Fratria
3.23
Riltzi
0.83

allows per match

Fratria
0.62
Riltzi
2.29

finishing

Fratria+0.00on par
Riltzi+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fratria ↓

Riltzi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–16%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Fratria or draw
93%
Fratria or Riltzi
87%
Draw or Riltzi
21%

Winning margin

Fratria wins by 2+
59%
Riltzi wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Fratria 1+ goals
94%
Fratria 2+ goals
76%
Fratria 3+ goals
51%
Riltzi 1+ goals
51%
Riltzi 2+ goals
16%
Riltzi 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Fratria (draw refunded)
92%
Riltzi (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fratria at home — creates 3.23, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Riltzi away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fratria attack 3.23 + Riltzi defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.76

Riltzi attack 0.83 + Fratria defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Fratria scores more
79%
level
13%
Riltzi scores more
7%

Fratria at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Fratria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fratria vs Riltzi

Fratria beat Riltzi 7-0 in Third League - Northeast on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Kavarna.