Riltzi 2–2 Dunav ot Ruse II: Result & Stats

Riltzi

FT

2 – 2

Dunav ot Ruse II

8/14/2022

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 1Stadion selo Riltsi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Riltzi61%

×Draw19%

Dunav ot Ruse II20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RiltziExpected goals in this matchDunav ot Ruse II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.35

1.29

Riltzi

2.35

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.29

Riltzi creates 82% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 27 away

1.85

creates per match

0.74

1.85

allows per match

2.85

creates per match

Riltzi

1.85

Dunav ot Ruse II

0.74

allows per match

Riltzi

1.85

Dunav ot Ruse II

2.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Riltzi+0.00on par

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Riltzi ↓

Dunav ot Ruse II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Riltzi or draw

80%

Riltzi or Dunav ot Ruse II

81%

Draw or Dunav ot Ruse II

39%

Winning margin

Riltzi wins by 2+

39%

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Riltzi 1+ goals

90%

Riltzi 2+ goals

68%

Riltzi 3+ goals

41%

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

72%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

37%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Riltzi (draw refunded)

75%

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Riltzi at home — creates 1.85, concedes 1.85 · 71 matches

Dunav ot Ruse II away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.85 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Riltzi attack 1.85 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.35

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 0.74 + Riltzi defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Riltzi scores more

61%

level

19%

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

20%

Riltzi at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Riltzi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff