Dunav ot Ruse II 0–2 Riltzi: Result & Stats

Dunav ot Ruse II

FT

0 – 2

Riltzi

8/26/2023

Third League - Northeast · Northeast - 3Stadion Dunav

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Dunav ot Ruse II47%

×Draw23%

Riltzi30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Dunav ot Ruse IIExpected goals in this matchRiltzi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.34

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.74

Riltzi

1.34

Dunav ot Ruse II creates 30% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 70 away

1.19

creates per match

0.83

1.85

allows per match

2.29

creates per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.19

Riltzi

0.83

allows per match

Dunav ot Ruse II

1.85

Riltzi

2.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunav ot Ruse II+0.00on par

Riltzi+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav ot Ruse II ↓

Riltzi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dunav ot Ruse II or draw

70%

Dunav ot Ruse II or Riltzi

77%

Draw or Riltzi

53%

Winning margin

Dunav ot Ruse II wins by 2+

25%

Riltzi wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Dunav ot Ruse II 1+ goals

82%

Dunav ot Ruse II 2+ goals

52%

Dunav ot Ruse II 3+ goals

25%

Riltzi 1+ goals

74%

Riltzi 2+ goals

39%

Riltzi 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Dunav ot Ruse II (draw refunded)

61%

Riltzi (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav ot Ruse II at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.85 · 27 matches

Riltzi away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.29 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav ot Ruse II attack 1.19 + Riltzi defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.74

Riltzi attack 0.83 + Dunav ot Ruse II defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Dunav ot Ruse II scores more

47%

level

23%

Riltzi scores more

30%

Dunav ot Ruse II at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Dunav ot Ruse II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff