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Rilski Sportist vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
8/9/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 2Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 131+ matches

Rilski Sportist52%
×Draw25%
Pirin Razlog24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rilski Sportist
1.65
Pirin Razlog
1.04

Rilski Sportist creates 59% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 131 away

creates per match

Rilski Sportist
1.72
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Rilski Sportist
1.10
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw
76%
Rilski Sportist or Pirin Razlog
75%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
48%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
28%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
81%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
49%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
23%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
65%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
28%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
68%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.65

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more
52%
level
25%
Pirin Razlog scores more
24%

Rilski Sportist at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rilski Sportist vs Pirin Razlog

Rilski Sportist and Pirin Razlog drew 1-1 in Third League - Southwest on August 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Iskar in Samokov.