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Pirin Razlog vs Rilski Sportist — Third League - Southwest 2018

Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Rilski Sportist
Rilski Sportist
5/18/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 35Stadion Septemvri

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 129+ matches

Pirin Razlog48%
×Draw25%
Rilski Sportist27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pirin Razlog
1.54
Rilski Sportist
1.09

Pirin Razlog creates 41% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 129 away

creates per match

Pirin Razlog
1.35
Rilski Sportist
1.07

allows per match

Pirin Razlog
1.11
Rilski Sportist
1.73

finishing

Pirin Razlog+0.00on par
Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Razlog ↓

Rilski Sportist →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Pirin Razlog or draw
73%
Pirin Razlog or Rilski Sportist
75%
Draw or Rilski Sportist
52%

Winning margin

Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
24%
Rilski Sportist wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
79%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
45%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
20%
Rilski Sportist 1+ goals
66%
Rilski Sportist 2+ goals
30%
Rilski Sportist 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
64%
Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Razlog at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.11 · 130 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Razlog attack 1.35 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.54

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Pirin Razlog scores more
48%
level
25%
Rilski Sportist scores more
27%

Pirin Razlog at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Pirin Razlog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Pirin Razlog 2–1 Rilski Sportist

Pirin Razlog beat Rilski Sportist 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Septemvri in Razlog.