Rilski Sportist 2–0 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Rilski Sportist

FT

2 – 0

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

5/17/2025

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 35Stadion Iskar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Rilski Sportist61%

×Draw22%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rilski SportistExpected goals in this matchPirin Blagoevgrad II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.86

Rilski Sportist

1.88

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.86

Rilski Sportist creates 119% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 37 away

1.72

creates per match

0.62

1.10

allows per match

2.05

creates per match

Rilski Sportist

1.72

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.62

allows per match

Rilski Sportist

1.10

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

2.05

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rilski Sportist ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Rilski Sportist or draw

83%

Rilski Sportist or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

78%

Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II

39%

Winning margin

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

36%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

85%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

56%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

29%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

58%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

21%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

79%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rilski Sportist at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.10 · 132 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rilski Sportist attack 1.72 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.88

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Rilski Sportist scores more

61%

level

22%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

17%

Rilski Sportist at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff