Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1–2 Rilski Sportist

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Rilski Sportist

11/2/2024

Third League - Southwest · Southwest - 16Stadion Rila

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II34%

×Draw25%

Rilski Sportist41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Pirin Blagoevgrad IIExpected goals in this matchRilski Sportist

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.48

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.31

Rilski Sportist

1.48

Rilski Sportist creates 13% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 129 away

0.89

creates per match

1.07

1.89

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

0.89

Rilski Sportist

1.07

allows per match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II

1.89

Rilski Sportist

1.73

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Rilski Sportist+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pirin Blagoevgrad II ↓

Rilski Sportist →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or draw

59%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II or Rilski Sportist

75%

Draw or Rilski Sportist

66%

Winning margin

Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+

15%

Rilski Sportist wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals

73%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals

38%

Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals

14%

Rilski Sportist 1+ goals

77%

Rilski Sportist 2+ goals

43%

Rilski Sportist 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)

45%

Rilski Sportist (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pirin Blagoevgrad II at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.89 · 37 matches

Rilski Sportist away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.73 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.89 + Rilski Sportist defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.31

Rilski Sportist attack 1.07 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more

34%

level

25%

Rilski Sportist scores more

41%

Rilski Sportist at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rilski Sportist will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff